Hi All, just wanted to give you a quick update on the REO and Short Sale market in North Idaho. Out of 452 total sold properties in the month of MAY 2010; 87 were REO properties or 19%. The average REO sold price was $166,000 and banks settled on offers, on average, 95.37% of list price. There is only a 2 month supply of REO’s on the market compared with a total of 26 month supply of regular inventory. See the two year trend line of REO active inventory, sold inventory, and month of supply below (I found this chart interesting and I am sure you will too):
REO MARKET TREND – CHART - TWO YEAR
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ript27vue9e,7,1
If you would like to preview the available REO market inventory, see this link:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ript2ut2sps,7,1
9% of all sales in May were short sales or 44 total short sales closed in May. There are many more short sales on the market now then before, the trend is certainly moving toward a greater level of short sale inventory. The banks seem to still be awash in short sale files and the approval process still takes time. Worst case scenarios are the foreclosure dept’s and loss mitigation dept’s of banks not communicating. Here are the chart and list of available inventory:
SHORT SALE MARKET TRENDS - CHART – TWO YEAR
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ript2bdqcky,7,1
Short sale market inventory:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ript35yvvnd,7,1
Thanks, have a great rest of the day – if you’re out and about tonight, I am entering my chili into a cook-off at the Veterans Park at Cherry Hill from 5-8pm. Come on down if your available! As always, if you or someone you know has interest in North Idaho real estate, let me know! Also, if you know of someone that would like this information, forward this to them or give me their email address. I would love to work with you/them. TJB
Hi All, hope everything is going well with you and your family. Sun has finally made it into North Idaho and I am expecting a nice/hot summer. I jumped in Lake CDA this morning – NOTE – it’s still cold. This edition of my NIRE Analysis will focus on:
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE – if you want the charts that I usually send, reply with the request and I will “load you up”
FORECLOSURE UPDATE
SHORT SALE UPDATE
COMMERCIAL MARKET
NORTH IDAHO MARKET UPDATE
Currently there are approx 2844 residential listings in Kootenai County. Current market conditions tell us this is 12.5 months of inventory. 288 units sold last month ($45 Milliion in Volume) up from 177 ($36 Million) one year ago at this time – UP 38% compared April 09’ (in units) –
We have sold 918 units (as reported from MLS) since 1/1/10. The average sold price is 200K. You can expect a house priced around 200K to be on the market 116 days (of course, if it’s priced competitive). If a house is priced above 500K you can expect it to be on the market for 220+ days (upper range HAS to be top 3 in quality and price compared with competition if it’s going to have a chance at selling). The average home will rent for between $900-1150/month.
It will be interesting to see next month’s stats and the effect the expiration of the tax credit has on sales. Further – this came to me from one of my family members regarding the national market…
I went to a real estate conference yesterday. One of the guest speakers was from the Federal Reserve. While I am a little pessimistic about the current market and where it’s going, I was pretty stunned at what this guy had to say (these are his opinions and not that of the Fed). I thought I’d share some of his info:
1. 24% of all homes in the US have negative equity (70% in Vegas)
2. 23% of loans that have been delinquent 12 months - yes, 12 months - have not started foreclosure yet
3. 14.6% of mortgages are NOT current
4. 50% of loan modifications are in re-default after 9 months
5. Hotels have lost 50% of their value in last 24 months - particularly luxury hotels
6. Starting to see consistency in multi-family; however, watch the condo and timeshare market where you buy (eg. timeshares in Orlando can now be rented for $50 per WEEK).
7. Commercial Loans - can’t re-fi overleveraged properties
8. Regional Banks and Community banks own 26% and 47% of their portfolios in commercial loans - banks will continue to be hammered
9. Recovery is 2-4 years away
FORECLOSURE
REO agents are busy this year, and will continue to be for the next 2 years. REO property has accounted for 25% of our sales this year. The average sale price was $153,247 – the price it was listed at when it sells - $160,620. The original list price $171,183. What this tells you – when a bank lists their property and it doesn’t sell in 30 days they drop it 10K until it sells. As a buyer you can expect a 5% discount on the final list price (average bank takes 95.15% of list price). 232 foreclosure properties sold since 1/1/10, for an average of 62 days on the market.
186 Foreclosures on the market now – including pending. See the list below:
SHORT SALES
289 short sales are on the market now, 83 (28%) sold since 1/1/10. Banks are still taking 3+ months to respond, but I have noticed they are responding. Typically they are within 85-90% of market price, however there have been a few occasions where it is less. Here is the link to the short sales:
COMMERCIAL MARKET
333 total commercial listings on the market now. 15 (4.5%) have sold this year (see the list of what has sold here). It’s not looking to good in the commercial realm; however, there are nice commercial development bargains if you’re looking. Contact me for a list if you’re interested.
Thank you for taking the time to review our market conditions and/or look over our listings. If you have further questions or comments or would like to LIST or WRITE OFFERS, please let me know. As always, if you or your family/friends/clients need help with anything real estate in North Idaho, please do not hesitate to get in touch. I am always available and my website is always updated with the latest listings.
This property is a fantastic value nestled above Carlin Bay Marina on Lake Coeur d’Alene. Enjoy everything North Idaho offers (boating, fishing, national forest, hunting, hiking, camping, freedom) at a fraction of the value. This vacant land piece of real estate is priced at only $75,000. See the video below:
I hope all is well with you this summer! It has been getting hot, a great time to grab friends and family and get on the LAKE! Go take advantage and enjoy what a great place North Idaho is in the summer. This monthly update I want to share information about: 1. Current Inventory, Sold’s, Month Supply 2. Total Market Overviews 3. Vacant Land 4. Foreclosures/Short Sales 5. Keller Williams LUAU Coming Up
1. Looking over July results, it appears fairly optimistic in line with the national housing results that were announced just recently. We sold 308 units in July 09’ (compared with 323, 08’). This is up over the 299 sold in June. The sales also follow the North Idaho trend of summer month sales more than double winter sales (Jan 09’ 120 units sold). If you look at the enclosed trend line stats, you will see what I am talking about. From here on out we can expect inventory to drop a little bit every month then start gaining momentum again in February. Currently, we are at 8,676 listings. If you are a seller, get your property listed to within the top 3 properties in your class (price,quality) if you want it to sell before winter. If you’re a buyer, this market is producing some incredible opportunity for primary residences in all price ranges. The $8,500 tax credit is still in effect until end of Nov. Also, on a side note, legislation just got passed, by Aug 15th loan servicers will begin to modify ANY FHA loans if the mortgagee applies and fits the profile (31% Front End Ratio, 55% Back End Debt) according to the Affordable Modification Program Letter 2009-23. Let me know if you would like more info.
2. Enclosed are the Total Market Overviews (TMO’s) for all of Kootenai County for CONDOS, MULTIFAMILY, and SINGLE FAM. Very interesting to look at, not much activity going on in the duplex/triplex fourplex realm, which may produce some opportunity in the coming year as inventory swells. As banks tighten lending even more, this may force more people to rent. I like the idea of big units 4+ bedrooms ect… Midrange condominiums 300-400K appears to be seeing some action. See the attached TMO’s. Kootenai County Total Market Overview
3. Vacant land inventory on our MLS is up over 3700 parcels available!!!! We sold 407 parcels in the last year. Here are 100 parcels over 80 acres. http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ou3e0pn4ljn,7,1 You can view all of our land and search specifically for your needs at my http://www.LandCDA.com website.
4. Sellers are starting to price their properties similar to REO pricing. They have to in order to compete. Here is the current foreclosure list; 89 units available now. http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ou3e0×99732,7,1 If you have interest, 208 REO’s sold in the last year for an average of $93/FOOT. Within 95% of list price. Average Days on Market is only 85 days for an REO, this includes escrow time AVG 45 days….See below for REO sold stats for first 200:
5. Keller Williams Luau – This is coming up Friday August 21, 2009 5-8pm and YOU are invited. 1044 NW BLVD. Food, music and a jumping tent for the adventurous. I hope to see you there!
Have a great remainder of August! As always, if you or anyone you know is looking to buy, sell, invest, lease, property in North Idaho please have them get in touch with me. I would love to work with them. I am always available. CELL 208-660-5785.
JEB COMMERCE used T.J. Barnhart at Keller Williams Realty in Coeur d’Alene, ID to negotiate their commercial lease in a Class A office space in downtown Coeur d’Alene. “We are very excited about our new office space and T.J. got us a fantastic deal” says JEB COMMERCE as they sealed their lease with a grand signing.
I showed JEB COMMERCE 8 different office suites in the downtown Coeur d’Alene area. There is definitely plenty of inventory to choose from in the office space environment. All were vacant units. We were able to use that information as a negotiating tool and we got a great deal. If you or anyone you know is looking to negotiate a commercial, retail, office, manufacturing, industrial lease in the North Idaho region, please forward them my information and I would love to help them out.
The North Idaho Real Estate Market has seen an increase in sales the last couple of months – which is not surprising – North Idaho is a wonderful place to be in the summer. 282 units sold in June. The average days on market increased to 137 days and we are sitting on 29 months of inventory (8340 listings). If we compare ourselves with June 08’ we will see a 13% decrease in total unit sales and a 4% decrease in price (221K vs 212K). Not bad considering the nature of current economic conditions. Please see the enclosed PDF files which include a 2 year trend line of real estate inventory, sales and activity, average sold prices for the last two years, asking vs sold prices, ect. Also, included is the Keller Williams Total Market Overview. This gives all listing, pending and sales activity in every price range. Notice the pick up in activity in the $200-250K price range. I also have Market Overviews for each area and segment in our market (Condos, Post Falls, Sandpoint, Waterfront, Multi-Family, 1 Mil Plus), just let me know what you want and I will send it to you immediately.
REO LIST (84 Active, 8 Pending – 23 sold last month)
Foreclosures and Real Estate Owned by banks continue to keep downward pricing pressure on our active listings. The availability of foreclosures continues to increase every month, with more than a 20% pending ratio! See the list below:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50u7tjy8e,7,1
Short Sale List (188 Active, 21 Pending – 19 sold last month)
I ran all the short sales sold in the last year. 70 total. Sellers ON AVERAGE reduced their prices 10% since initially offering their property. Then they averaged a 3.55% price reduction from the bank while in negotiations. This tells me that agents are getting the prices on the short sales below appraised value and close to what the banks will accept. View the list of short sales here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50ucmw7aj,7,1
Waterfront Listings (84 North Idaho Waterfront Listings)
Summer is a great time to be in North Idaho. Here is the latest in waterfront listings.
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot512zgi5s8,7,1
The commercial market is engaging a record $480 BILLION in debt coming due. This is a large number (up to 10X) compared to the residential market!
“…thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years — with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.”
Why, you ask, does this affect the market? Well, if you own a commercial property, and you have a balloon payment coming up, traditionally you would refinance, and start the process again. The availability of funds to refinance has dried up and terms have gotten tougher. Understand the issue? It is going to put a strain on banks ability to fund not only commercial but residential, credit lines, ect… This may present some distressed sales/foreclosures in the commercial arena. STAY TUNED. To view the available commercial inventory now, visit my site updated nightly with newest listings:
1739 16th Street (marked as 1925). Great buy in Post Falls. This property may be the best “acreage” deal in the Post Falls area. Priced aggressively at $239,950, this home boasts almost 1600 SQ/FT and nestled on 5 fenced and cross fenced acres. Includes a horse stall (shed) and a shop. If your looking for space, and don’t mind a little “fixing” up, check out this property. Complete property profile here: http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot38fihcxbn,7,1
Hi All, just wanted to get you access to the latest list of North Idaho retreat properties that I think would be an ideal location. I take into account acreage, access, trees, and water (creek/pond). This is a general list of 66 North Idaho properties, if you have more specific needs, please do not hesitate to give me your property needs/wants and I will program a specific query that every time a new real estate listing comes available with your terms, the system emails you IMMEDIATELY. Just email T.J. Barnhart tj@livecda.com.
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?osavolzmkax,7,1
This link is valid until 7/22/2009.
One property listing that I particularly like is a log home (920 SQFT)on 20 acres 1 mile off of HWY 95 in Careywood. Has a year round creek and an array of over 70 solar panels for self sufficiency. Backs up to State of Idaho land. Large shop, several outbuildings only $269,000. Also includes a doublewide and a singlewide set up for living now…Let me know if you have interest in this property…
I have grappled with this concept for the last couple of days, I figure now is the time to take a stab at explaining inflation effect on property owners, investors, and property buyers. I am no economist, just curious. First of all, I need to explain inflation in my simple mind. Inflation is the price of goods/services going up as a result of the increase in money supply - a decrease in purchasing power. As the FED prints more money it dilutes the value of the money currently in the market driving up prices of goods and services. As a counterbalance to the rise of inflation, the government and/or market raises interest rates. Somehow, unemployment, output and productivity come into play as well.
INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES - Now, as the price of goods and services go up, property owners have to spend more of their income on these items reducing the amount of disposable income. Homeowners that are at the edge of their expenses who do not have savings, become unemployed or have not had increases in salaries will be pinched on making mortgage payments. When a person has to choose between food for family or mortgage, the food will probably win. There will be an increase in foreclosures. Take into account adjustable mortgages as well, when interest rates reset, payments go up making the pinch and foreclosure statistics a whole lot worse.
BIGGER POOL OF RENTERS - When people lose their homes, they are still going to have to have shelter. I think investment properties, rentals, will have a steady availability of tenants. We are seeing this now in North Idaho. Leases/rents are negotiable and reset after a set period of time investors can increase rents based upon inflation creating a hedge that a typical homeowner cannot.
INVEST IN ASSETS THAT CAN PAY OFF YOUR DEBT - Creating hedges in an inflationary environment is key to wealth protection. Inflation hedges include tangibles and goods (commodities). Land and property is definitely an asset but you have to buy right. Finding property deals that are close to the bottom as possible is key. Any good agent can give you a synopsis on the current market conditions in the area you would like to purchase. Good indicators would be level of foreclosures and short sales, active price ranges, and amount of solds/pendings in each price range.
HYPERINFLATION (a long shot) - Lets say hyperinflation comes around - that is - huge increase of inflation month over month. The value of money changes drastically and becomes worth less and less (i.e. it takes much more dollars to purchase the same thing). It makes sense if you have tangibles that increase at the same rate, if you owe 200,000 on your property and a pound of gold is worth 200,000 you can sell and pay off your house. I see having debt as being a plus in a hyperinflationary environment, AS LONG AS, you have assets, tangibles, goods that can counterbalance. The value in this for example, is now you can buy pound of gold for under 16,000. You have got to have a means to create income that is adjusted to inflation on a daily basis.
IN SUMMARY - The key to inflation and the housing market on you, the property purchaser is to make sure you get the best deal you can on a house you have interest in. Be aware of what is on the market, and the direction the market is headed in you area. Act in front of the market. Your real estate agent should be able to help you with local housing information. If you can get a loan, buy an investment property in foreclosure or one that is priced right. If your the property SELLER, get your price in front of the market now! That is where the buyer pool is. If you are backwards in value to loan on your house, shortsale it. Banks are taking losses on their loans, freeing up homeowners that could go into foreclosure. Good luck and let me know if I can help!
Property buyers in the $125-175k price range are the winners in this market. Over 700 options available, including 26 foreclosures! We are almost experiencing a 20% pending ratio with listings available and listings with accepted offers. A buyer can reasonably expect to get a property within 97% of list price. I currently beat that with my clients, I typically get within 90-94% of ask price with buyers I represent. Let me help you navigate the process. Real estate is what I do.
