May 11, 2010
Hi All, hope everything is going well with you and your family. Sun has finally made it into North Idaho and I am expecting a nice/hot summer. I jumped in Lake CDA this morning – NOTE – it’s still cold. This edition of my NIRE Analysis will focus on:
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE – if you want the charts that I usually send, reply with the request and I will “load you up”
FORECLOSURE UPDATE
SHORT SALE UPDATE
COMMERCIAL MARKET
NORTH IDAHO MARKET UPDATE
Currently there are approx 2844 residential listings in Kootenai County. Current market conditions tell us this is 12.5 months of inventory. 288 units sold last month ($45 Milliion in Volume) up from 177 ($36 Million) one year ago at this time – UP 38% compared April 09’ (in units) –
We have sold 918 units (as reported from MLS) since 1/1/10. The average sold price is 200K. You can expect a house priced around 200K to be on the market 116 days (of course, if it’s priced competitive). If a house is priced above 500K you can expect it to be on the market for 220+ days (upper range HAS to be top 3 in quality and price compared with competition if it’s going to have a chance at selling). The average home will rent for between $900-1150/month.
It will be interesting to see next month’s stats and the effect the expiration of the tax credit has on sales. Further – this came to me from one of my family members regarding the national market…
I went to a real estate conference yesterday. One of the guest speakers was from the Federal Reserve. While I am a little pessimistic about the current market and where it’s going, I was pretty stunned at what this guy had to say (these are his opinions and not that of the Fed). I thought I’d share some of his info:
1. 24% of all homes in the US have negative equity (70% in Vegas)
2. 23% of loans that have been delinquent 12 months - yes, 12 months - have not started foreclosure yet
3. 14.6% of mortgages are NOT current
4. 50% of loan modifications are in re-default after 9 months
5. Hotels have lost 50% of their value in last 24 months - particularly luxury hotels
6. Starting to see consistency in multi-family; however, watch the condo and timeshare market where you buy (eg. timeshares in Orlando can now be rented for $50 per WEEK).
7. Commercial Loans - can’t re-fi overleveraged properties
8. Regional Banks and Community banks own 26% and 47% of their portfolios in commercial loans - banks will continue to be hammered
9. Recovery is 2-4 years away
FORECLOSURE
REO agents are busy this year, and will continue to be for the next 2 years. REO property has accounted for 25% of our sales this year. The average sale price was $153,247 – the price it was listed at when it sells - $160,620. The original list price $171,183. What this tells you – when a bank lists their property and it doesn’t sell in 30 days they drop it 10K until it sells. As a buyer you can expect a 5% discount on the final list price (average bank takes 95.15% of list price). 232 foreclosure properties sold since 1/1/10, for an average of 62 days on the market.
186 Foreclosures on the market now – including pending. See the list below:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8i61ynug,7,1
SHORT SALES
289 short sales are on the market now, 83 (28%) sold since 1/1/10. Banks are still taking 3+ months to respond, but I have noticed they are responding. Typically they are within 85-90% of market price, however there have been a few occasions where it is less. Here is the link to the short sales:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8jkr6ngh,7,1
COMMERCIAL MARKET
333 total commercial listings on the market now. 15 (4.5%) have sold this year (see the list of what has sold here). It’s not looking to good in the commercial realm; however, there are nice commercial development bargains if you’re looking. Contact me for a list if you’re interested.
View commercial listings at:
http://www.NorthIdahoCommercial.com
View commercial business opportunities here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8ng58n0t,7,1
Thank you for taking the time to review our market conditions and/or look over our listings. If you have further questions or comments or would like to LIST or WRITE OFFERS, please let me know. As always, if you or your family/friends/clients need help with anything real estate in North Idaho, please do not hesitate to get in touch. I am always available and my website is always updated with the latest listings.
Have a great rest of the week, TJB (208)660-5785
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September 25, 2009
August 4, 2009
I hope all is well with you this summer! It has been getting hot, a great time to grab friends and family and get on the LAKE! Go take advantage and enjoy what a great place North Idaho is in the summer. This monthly update I want to share information about: 1. Current Inventory, Sold’s, Month Supply 2. Total Market Overviews 3. Vacant Land 4. Foreclosures/Short Sales 5. Keller Williams LUAU Coming Up
1. Looking over July results, it appears fairly optimistic in line with the national housing results that were announced just recently. We sold 308 units in July 09’ (compared with 323, 08’). This is up over the 299 sold in June. The sales also follow the North Idaho trend of summer month sales more than double winter sales (Jan 09’ 120 units sold). If you look at the enclosed trend line stats, you will see what I am talking about. From here on out we can expect inventory to drop a little bit every month then start gaining momentum again in February. Currently, we are at 8,676 listings. If you are a seller, get your property listed to within the top 3 properties in your class (price,quality) if you want it to sell before winter. If you’re a buyer, this market is producing some incredible opportunity for primary residences in all price ranges. The $8,500 tax credit is still in effect until end of Nov. Also, on a side note, legislation just got passed, by Aug 15th loan servicers will begin to modify ANY FHA loans if the mortgagee applies and fits the profile (31% Front End Ratio, 55% Back End Debt) according to the Affordable Modification Program Letter 2009-23. Let me know if you would like more info.
2. Enclosed are the Total Market Overviews (TMO’s) for all of Kootenai County for CONDOS, MULTIFAMILY, and SINGLE FAM. Very interesting to look at, not much activity going on in the duplex/triplex fourplex realm, which may produce some opportunity in the coming year as inventory swells. As banks tighten lending even more, this may force more people to rent. I like the idea of big units 4+ bedrooms ect… Midrange condominiums 300-400K appears to be seeing some action. See the attached TMO’s. Kootenai County Total Market Overview
3. Vacant land inventory on our MLS is up over 3700 parcels available!!!! We sold 407 parcels in the last year. Here are 100 parcels over 80 acres. http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ou3e0pn4ljn,7,1 You can view all of our land and search specifically for your needs at my http://www.LandCDA.com website.
4. Sellers are starting to price their properties similar to REO pricing. They have to in order to compete. Here is the current foreclosure list; 89 units available now. http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ou3e0×99732,7,1 If you have interest, 208 REO’s sold in the last year for an average of $93/FOOT. Within 95% of list price. Average Days on Market is only 85 days for an REO, this includes escrow time AVG 45 days….See below for REO sold stats for first 200:
5. Keller Williams Luau – This is coming up Friday August 21, 2009 5-8pm and YOU are invited. 1044 NW BLVD. Food, music and a jumping tent for the adventurous. I hope to see you there!
Have a great remainder of August! As always, if you or anyone you know is looking to buy, sell, invest, lease, property in North Idaho please have them get in touch with me. I would love to work with them. I am always available. CELL 208-660-5785.
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July 10, 2009
The North Idaho Real Estate Market has seen an increase in sales the last couple of months – which is not surprising – North Idaho is a wonderful place to be in the summer. 282 units sold in June. The average days on market increased to 137 days and we are sitting on 29 months of inventory (8340 listings). If we compare ourselves with June 08’ we will see a 13% decrease in total unit sales and a 4% decrease in price (221K vs 212K). Not bad considering the nature of current economic conditions. Please see the enclosed PDF files which include a 2 year trend line of real estate inventory, sales and activity, average sold prices for the last two years, asking vs sold prices, ect. Also, included is the Keller Williams Total Market Overview. This gives all listing, pending and sales activity in every price range. Notice the pick up in activity in the $200-250K price range. I also have Market Overviews for each area and segment in our market (Condos, Post Falls, Sandpoint, Waterfront, Multi-Family, 1 Mil Plus), just let me know what you want and I will send it to you immediately.
REO LIST (84 Active, 8 Pending – 23 sold last month)
Foreclosures and Real Estate Owned by banks continue to keep downward pricing pressure on our active listings. The availability of foreclosures continues to increase every month, with more than a 20% pending ratio! See the list below:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50u7tjy8e,7,1
Short Sale List (188 Active, 21 Pending – 19 sold last month)
I ran all the short sales sold in the last year. 70 total. Sellers ON AVERAGE reduced their prices 10% since initially offering their property. Then they averaged a 3.55% price reduction from the bank while in negotiations. This tells me that agents are getting the prices on the short sales below appraised value and close to what the banks will accept. View the list of short sales here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50ucmw7aj,7,1
Waterfront Listings (84 North Idaho Waterfront Listings)
Summer is a great time to be in North Idaho. Here is the latest in waterfront listings.
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot512zgi5s8,7,1
The commercial market is engaging a record $480 BILLION in debt coming due. This is a large number (up to 10X) compared to the residential market!
“…thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years — with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.”
Why, you ask, does this affect the market? Well, if you own a commercial property, and you have a balloon payment coming up, traditionally you would refinance, and start the process again. The availability of funds to refinance has dried up and terms have gotten tougher. Understand the issue? It is going to put a strain on banks ability to fund not only commercial but residential, credit lines, ect… This may present some distressed sales/foreclosures in the commercial arena. STAY TUNED. To view the available commercial inventory now, visit my site updated nightly with newest listings:
http://www.NorthIdahoCommercial.com
Total Market Overview CDA
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June 16, 2009
June 9, 2009
April 14, 2009
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TOP 15 Servicers: SSP to Approval
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Bank
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SSP to Approval
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Approval to Closing
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Ocwen
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37.8
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20.6
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Home Equity
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41.2
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19.7
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|
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EMC
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43.8
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24.4
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Indymac
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50.4
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27
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Option One
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51
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27.8
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Wilshire
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54
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27
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Chase
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58.4
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26.4
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Homecomings
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59.4
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41.8
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GMAC
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61.3
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26.7
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Wells Fargo
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67.5
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24.1
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First Franklin
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71.4
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35.2
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Litton
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74.1
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30
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ASC
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82.3
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23.2
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Countrywide
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83
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26
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Citi Mortgage
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86.5
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33
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Top 15 Average
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61.5
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27.5
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2008 Averages
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64.9
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29.3
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This chart depicts the short sale bank turnaround times from real estate purchase contract to bank approval and bank approval to successful closing. I highly recomend using real estate agents familiar with the short sale process in purchasing property. Particulalry, using listing agents that know what information to get to the bank and how to successfully communicate with them.
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March 26, 2009
March 23, 2009
March 3, 2009
Hello All! I hope the current economic conditions are treating you gently. This edition of my NI Real Estate Analysis I want to cover 1. Market Activity, 2. Opportunities/Deals in Foreclosure/Short Sale 3. Buyer “Perfect Storm” and 4. “Retreat/Remote” Self Sufficient Properties. Also, please see my site redesign at http://www.LiveCDA.com and let me know your comments.
January and February have been tough months in sales with total unit sales at 117 and 110 respectively (according to MLS data). Sold volume has been very low at $34M & $20M. This would account for our average monthly sale price dropping from $294K to $188K! However, the property price ranges between 125K-175K are producing double digit pending ratios! This makes sense as it is the first time homebuyer market. Upper level properties Days on Market (DOM) continue to climb, currently at 182 days to sell. Once they do sell, we are getting within 93% of ask price. Of course, to sell, they have to offer best quality, or best price. Occasionally both. I get the question often, when do you think the right time to buy is? I think if you’re a first time homebuyer the time is now. If you’re in the residential upper level (300k+) buying mode, I think property prices may come down a little more, it may pay to wait, however, it is hard to tell if interest rates will stay this low. If you have a property you like, go for it. Call me if you want to “present” an offer to purchase. See the attached documents for more in-depth analysis.
Regarding anyone that has not owned a home in 36 months, I think now is a “perfect storm” for buying. Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit that purchasers get with their taxes if they buy before Dec. 1. Further, prices are low. The good houses (best price, best quality under 175K), we are getting multiple offers on. Current interest rates are dating back to 1969 levels. We have the right buyer incentives, low prices, low interest rates. If buyers have a job and descent credit, they can probably get a loan.
REO/FORECLOSURE PROPERTIES
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?op5gf6yzhd6,7,1
SHORT SALES
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?op5gf8nuf12,7,1
Black Rock Lot for $75,000 (Does not include membership)!
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?op5gerq9rzv,7,1
There has been talk that Idaho is a great place to “rebound” to if world frenzy continues to get livelier. With “back-up” alternative energy retrofits getting more reasonably priced w/ incentives (wind, solar, biomass), and property prices at low levels, inventory up, I think now is great time to secure a piece of that “getaway” property. Here is a list of North Idaho properties (in all price ranges) that I generated that include trees, multiple acres, private well or water source, ect…
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?op5gk5b3f7w,7,1
Thank you for your referrals “in advance”! I will take care of you, your friends and family, neighbors, and more. I have knowledge in all aspects real estate: residential (www.livecda.com), commercial (northidahocommercial.com), waterfront (idahowaterfrontproperties.com), land (landcda.com), multifamily (idahomultifam.com) ect… Have a great March, and let me know if you have comments, questions.
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