May 11, 2010
Hi All, hope everything is going well with you and your family. Sun has finally made it into North Idaho and I am expecting a nice/hot summer. I jumped in Lake CDA this morning – NOTE – it’s still cold. This edition of my NIRE Analysis will focus on:
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE – if you want the charts that I usually send, reply with the request and I will “load you up”
FORECLOSURE UPDATE
SHORT SALE UPDATE
COMMERCIAL MARKET
NORTH IDAHO MARKET UPDATE
Currently there are approx 2844 residential listings in Kootenai County. Current market conditions tell us this is 12.5 months of inventory. 288 units sold last month ($45 Milliion in Volume) up from 177 ($36 Million) one year ago at this time – UP 38% compared April 09’ (in units) –
We have sold 918 units (as reported from MLS) since 1/1/10. The average sold price is 200K. You can expect a house priced around 200K to be on the market 116 days (of course, if it’s priced competitive). If a house is priced above 500K you can expect it to be on the market for 220+ days (upper range HAS to be top 3 in quality and price compared with competition if it’s going to have a chance at selling). The average home will rent for between $900-1150/month.
It will be interesting to see next month’s stats and the effect the expiration of the tax credit has on sales. Further – this came to me from one of my family members regarding the national market…
I went to a real estate conference yesterday. One of the guest speakers was from the Federal Reserve. While I am a little pessimistic about the current market and where it’s going, I was pretty stunned at what this guy had to say (these are his opinions and not that of the Fed). I thought I’d share some of his info:
1. 24% of all homes in the US have negative equity (70% in Vegas)
2. 23% of loans that have been delinquent 12 months - yes, 12 months - have not started foreclosure yet
3. 14.6% of mortgages are NOT current
4. 50% of loan modifications are in re-default after 9 months
5. Hotels have lost 50% of their value in last 24 months - particularly luxury hotels
6. Starting to see consistency in multi-family; however, watch the condo and timeshare market where you buy (eg. timeshares in Orlando can now be rented for $50 per WEEK).
7. Commercial Loans - can’t re-fi overleveraged properties
8. Regional Banks and Community banks own 26% and 47% of their portfolios in commercial loans - banks will continue to be hammered
9. Recovery is 2-4 years away
FORECLOSURE
REO agents are busy this year, and will continue to be for the next 2 years. REO property has accounted for 25% of our sales this year. The average sale price was $153,247 – the price it was listed at when it sells - $160,620. The original list price $171,183. What this tells you – when a bank lists their property and it doesn’t sell in 30 days they drop it 10K until it sells. As a buyer you can expect a 5% discount on the final list price (average bank takes 95.15% of list price). 232 foreclosure properties sold since 1/1/10, for an average of 62 days on the market.
186 Foreclosures on the market now – including pending. See the list below:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8i61ynug,7,1
SHORT SALES
289 short sales are on the market now, 83 (28%) sold since 1/1/10. Banks are still taking 3+ months to respond, but I have noticed they are responding. Typically they are within 85-90% of market price, however there have been a few occasions where it is less. Here is the link to the short sales:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8jkr6ngh,7,1
COMMERCIAL MARKET
333 total commercial listings on the market now. 15 (4.5%) have sold this year (see the list of what has sold here). It’s not looking to good in the commercial realm; however, there are nice commercial development bargains if you’re looking. Contact me for a list if you’re interested.
View commercial listings at:
http://www.NorthIdahoCommercial.com
View commercial business opportunities here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rho8ng58n0t,7,1
Thank you for taking the time to review our market conditions and/or look over our listings. If you have further questions or comments or would like to LIST or WRITE OFFERS, please let me know. As always, if you or your family/friends/clients need help with anything real estate in North Idaho, please do not hesitate to get in touch. I am always available and my website is always updated with the latest listings.
Have a great rest of the week, TJB (208)660-5785
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March 1, 2010
HI All, hope all is well! Enclosed is my latest North Idaho real estate market overview for month ending February. I’ve done the research, here are 5 topics that I will address this time including attached charts, trend lines and more: 1. Latest Market Data (Inventory, Sold, DOM, Sold Prices) 2. REO and Short Sale Updates and Links 3. Waterfront Listings 4. Vacant Land Overview 5. Commercial Market
There is a lot of information and links enclosed in this email so be sure to save it for future reference.
1. Our market has been doing fairly well in units sold. Feb 09 to Feb 10 we increased almost 30% in sales! Over 2803 total units sold in the last year, 200 in February. Average sold price is hovering around the 200K mark. If you’re curious what 200K will get you, see this link (there are over 160 options, but see 20 here): http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rflt59f26en,7,1 Interest rates are still very low (5%ish), and the first time homebuyer tax credit is available until June 30th (must have offer accepted by April 30).
The average Days on Market for a listing is 138 days. We have almost 32 months of inventory. We typically have the lowest inventory available in Jan/Feb then start increasing into the summer months, it is still the same, right now we have 6500+ listings, we will be over 7,000+ in no time. The hot price category is below 175K. As always, you can view all housing inventory via map/subdivision/location at my website http://www.LIVECDA.com
2. There are currently 160 bank owned properties on the MLS now, 30 of which are pending (under contract/ 18%). I hear the banks are holding even more but do not want to saturate the market with releasing all. 19% of all SOLD units in the last year were REO properties - 537 SOLD REO in the last year (2803 Total units sold in the Coeur d’Alene Region). Of the 537 sold REO’s, the average was LIST PRICE 181K / SOLD PRICE 170K. Across the board, banks moved off their list price by almost 5%, regular listings, sellers moved 8%.
Link to REO Listings (160) http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rflt0gristf,7,1
Link to Short Sales (283) http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rflt0ko129e,7,1 Short sales are still taking considerable time to get bank approval. There have been some new guidelines that may make banks respond sooner, stay tuned for that.
3. 86 North Idaho waterfront listings sold in the last year. This is across the board, CDA Lake, Hayden Lake, Spokane River, Twin/Spirit and more. Currently, over 120 available. See the list of Waterfront listings here - http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rflt5krayjc,7,1
4. Despite a rough year in vacant lot/land sales, things are looking up. Many lots available (2700+). 42 sold since Jan 1, 2010, 400 in the last year. Much inventory to choose from, prices are getting reasonable. 5 acre lots for around 50K in the surrounding area. I just listed 3 5+ acre CDA Lakeview lots above Carlin Bay for 75K each. You can view all vacant land inventories here
http://www.LandCDA.com
5. Commercial Market – Lots of information out there about the “dire straights” of the commercial market and the tough time securing financing. In a nutshell, cash availability to businesses that need it to expand, pay bills, hire employees has dried up and it is tough to refinance and establish new credit lines for businesses. The SBA has a program going, but the process is “hairy”. Contact your favorite commercial lender for more information on the lending environment; I am sure they would love to talk to you about it. I hear there could be a potential $500+ Billion in commercial foreclosures/defaults. Locally, we have 282 commercial listings available now in our market (see the listings here http://www.northidahocommercial.com ). 3 of which, are marked as pending. 58 total commercial sales reported to the MLS since 3/1/2009. If you’re curious, you can view a list of commercial business opportunities available here (http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?rfltcghupga,7,1)
If you have specific questions, or if you would like specific niche real estate market info including commercial, please let me know. I have a broad base of listings in each of these categories. If you’re looking for something, I probably have it or have access to it. As always, I am available to assist you, your friends, your co-workers and your family in everything real estate, anytime. Just let me know how I can help. Have a great rest of the week. TJB
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January 15, 2010
The Post Falls commercial real estate market is staying strong!
While commercial real estate activity has slowed in many parts of the U.S., the city of Post Falls has a substantial amount of activity either planned or in the works.
Meantime, vacancy rates in all commercial sectors in the city are low and appear to be holding steady.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is well under way on construction of a $10.3 million, 150,000-square-foot super center just east of the Cabela’s outlet on the Idaho side of the Washington-Idaho state line. That store is scheduled to open by mid-2010. The store will be the second Wal-Mart in the town of 25,000 people.
Near the planned Wal-Mart, Lowe’s Companies Inc., the large, national home-improvement store chain, has obtained land and a building permit from the city of Post Falls. The company plans to break ground on a new store later this year, reportedly around the same time the Wal-Mart opens. The proposed Lowe’s will be the first big-box chain’s first store in Post Falls.
As national chains continue to expand into North Idaho, vacancy rates for rental space are holding steady despite the national economic downturn, and landlords are fetching higher rental rates.
The Spokane-Kootenai Real Estate Research Committee published “The Real Estate Report” in December with vacancy-rate surveys for office, industrial and retail space in communities throughout the Inland Northwest.
The surveys, conducted by Spokane commercial appraisal firm Auble, Jolicoeur & Gentry, showed that Post Falls had the tightest office and industrial markets in North Idaho and a healthy retail market.
The office sector had a vacancy rate of just under 3 percent, essentially the same as it was in the year-earlier survey. The annual rental rate on recently signed leases stood at $15.24 per square foot, a dollar more than the average annual rental rate on all leases. Consequently, landlords are garnering more money for office space than they had in the past.
In the industrial market, Post Falls has a larger amount of square footage than any other community in North Idaho and the smallest vacancy rate. The survey reported that only 1.75 percent of the nearly 2 million square feet of industrial space was vacant. The average annual rental rate on recently signed leases was $7.44 per square foot, more than a dollar higher than average annual rental rate for all industrial space.
In the retail sector, the vacancy rate was higher than it was in the office and industrial sectors, but the rental rates were rising quickly. Post Falls’ retail market had a vacancy rate of just above 12 percent, roughly the same as it has been the past two years. The average annual recent rate is $13 per square foot, more than $1.50 more than the overall annual rental rate.
While competition for space remains strong, land along heavily traveled traffic corridors remains available for development. T.J. Barnhart, of Keller Williams Realty Coeur d’Alene, is marketing a 30-acre parcel along state Highway 41, less than a half-mile north of a major retail center that includes the town’s original Wal-Mart. The land is zoned so that it can be used for a variety of uses—office, industrial, retail or multifamily.
“It’s a unique opportunity in the current economy,” Barnhart said.
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November 2, 2009
Hi All,
Hope all is well with you and your family. It has been getting pretty cold at nights around Coeur d’Alene, snow is expected soon definitely before Thanksgiving. In this newsletter, I would like to talk about 4 points: 1. North Idaho Real Estate Market Conditions, 2. Commercial Property Sales 3. $8,000 Tax Credit Extension 4. REO and Short Sales
North Idaho Real Estate Market Conditions
Through October 09’ we are sitting with 8373 listings on the market, a 26 month supply at current selling levels. Last month we sold 317 UNITS (consider that is 634 sides to a transaction – we have around 850 real estate agents in our market area). This is actually an 8% increase in sold unit’s year over year. In the coming months we can expect inventory to drop significantly through January – however- I suspect we will see an increase in REO and short sale listings keeping prices low. Our average sold price now is $200,665 and it is 151 days on the market. The $100,000-$200,000 price range is still the hot price points with up to 29% pending ratios in those price categories. In the upper price ranges – $400,000-$2,000,000 there are 8 pendings and a total of 303 listings. I consider this price point Armageddon for residential units priced above 400K (the average price adjustment is $56K!). Please see the attached PDF files, which include: two year trend lines, Total Market Overview, for more information.
2 Year Real Estate Trendline
Commercial Property Sales
There have been a total of 57 commercial units sold (reported through MLS) in the last year. The average price per SQ/FT for commercial sold is $93/FOOT. Average price adjustment before it sell is 29%. Average sold is $447,496. Of course, many factors come into play (i.e. location) when looking at comparable pricing. Commercial money is still hard to come by and with the restructuring and bankruptcy of CIT it may get even tighter. Watch for commercial REO’s. Community banks appear to be holding most of the commercial REO inventory so you might check with your local banks for their commercial REO list. You can see all commercial inventory here: http://www.NorthIdahoCommercial.com Please see the attached spreadsheet outlining the sold commercial data.
Idaho Commercial Sales Sold Anaylsis
$8,000 Tax Credit Extension
Late last week a bipartisan plan emerged in the Senate that would continue the $8,000 credit for first time purchasers beyond November 30, but would create a new, smaller credit of $6,500 for people who’ve owned and lived in their houses for five consecutive years and now want to buy another as their principal residence. It looks like this is going to go through. It is nice to see they are giving other buyers – like those that have owned their home for 5+ years an incentive to sell and repurchase. When this passes and you would like to list your home for sale and take advantage of this offer – LET ME KNOW!
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/TJ/Local%20Settings/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/OLK128/20091102_washingtonreport.htm
REO AND SHORT SALES
Right now there are 112 Real Estate Owned (REO) listings on the market. Over 250 sold in the last year. 26 sold last month representing about 8.2% of the closed inventory. You can view the current REO inventory here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ox111l25fe7,7,1
There are over 260 short sales on the market. Certain banks seem to be better than others in negotiating the short sales. My last short sale – we had approval in 1.5 months; my short sale before that 7 months! Big differences. To view the first 200 short sales on the market now see:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ox111w0qmr5,7,1
Thank you for taking the interest in our real estate market. If you would like specific information please do not hesitate to get in contact with me via email, phone or fax. Have a great Thanksgiving!
Your Local Realtor of Choice,
TJB
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September 25, 2009
July 28, 2009
July 10, 2009
The North Idaho Real Estate Market has seen an increase in sales the last couple of months – which is not surprising – North Idaho is a wonderful place to be in the summer. 282 units sold in June. The average days on market increased to 137 days and we are sitting on 29 months of inventory (8340 listings). If we compare ourselves with June 08’ we will see a 13% decrease in total unit sales and a 4% decrease in price (221K vs 212K). Not bad considering the nature of current economic conditions. Please see the enclosed PDF files which include a 2 year trend line of real estate inventory, sales and activity, average sold prices for the last two years, asking vs sold prices, ect. Also, included is the Keller Williams Total Market Overview. This gives all listing, pending and sales activity in every price range. Notice the pick up in activity in the $200-250K price range. I also have Market Overviews for each area and segment in our market (Condos, Post Falls, Sandpoint, Waterfront, Multi-Family, 1 Mil Plus), just let me know what you want and I will send it to you immediately.
REO LIST (84 Active, 8 Pending – 23 sold last month)
Foreclosures and Real Estate Owned by banks continue to keep downward pricing pressure on our active listings. The availability of foreclosures continues to increase every month, with more than a 20% pending ratio! See the list below:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50u7tjy8e,7,1
Short Sale List (188 Active, 21 Pending – 19 sold last month)
I ran all the short sales sold in the last year. 70 total. Sellers ON AVERAGE reduced their prices 10% since initially offering their property. Then they averaged a 3.55% price reduction from the bank while in negotiations. This tells me that agents are getting the prices on the short sales below appraised value and close to what the banks will accept. View the list of short sales here:
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot50ucmw7aj,7,1
Waterfront Listings (84 North Idaho Waterfront Listings)
Summer is a great time to be in North Idaho. Here is the latest in waterfront listings.
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?ot512zgi5s8,7,1
The commercial market is engaging a record $480 BILLION in debt coming due. This is a large number (up to 10X) compared to the residential market!
“…thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years — with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.”
Why, you ask, does this affect the market? Well, if you own a commercial property, and you have a balloon payment coming up, traditionally you would refinance, and start the process again. The availability of funds to refinance has dried up and terms have gotten tougher. Understand the issue? It is going to put a strain on banks ability to fund not only commercial but residential, credit lines, ect… This may present some distressed sales/foreclosures in the commercial arena. STAY TUNED. To view the available commercial inventory now, visit my site updated nightly with newest listings:
http://www.NorthIdahoCommercial.com
Total Market Overview CDA
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June 22, 2009
Hi All, just wanted to get you access to the latest list of North Idaho retreat properties that I think would be an ideal location. I take into account acreage, access, trees, and water (creek/pond). This is a general list of 66 North Idaho properties, if you have more specific needs, please do not hesitate to give me your property needs/wants and I will program a specific query that every time a new real estate listing comes available with your terms, the system emails you IMMEDIATELY. Just email T.J. Barnhart tj@livecda.com.
http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?osavolzmkax,7,1
This link is valid until 7/22/2009.
One property listing that I particularly like is a log home (920 SQFT)on 20 acres 1 mile off of HWY 95 in Careywood. Has a year round creek and an array of over 70 solar panels for self sufficiency. Backs up to State of Idaho land. Large shop, several outbuildings only $269,000. Also includes a doublewide and a singlewide set up for living now…Let me know if you have interest in this property…
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March 26, 2009
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